The Upcoming Elections, Pakistan’s Economy, and the Military Establishment !!!

In Pakistan, politics will overshadow the most significant media of time and space, focusing on the 2023 general elections. Since the initiation of the vote of a no-confidence motion, instability and polarization have only increased in the country. The ousted premier Imran Khan, who leads a large group of people against the PDM coalition government and the military establishment, has held a series of campaigns and rallies across the country since he was ousted from parliament. The biggest question for the politically obsessed Pakistani is who will win the next general election. Will Nawaz Sharif ever return to Pakistan, and will he ever be able to head his party, the PML-N, ever again?

The country is going through a difficult time because of the unstable economic situation. Pakistan’s economy has been in crisis since the devastating floods. The backbreaking inflation has soared and is at an all-time high, the value of the Pakistani rupee has depreciated sharply, and foreign exchange reserves are now at a record low of $3.8 billion, supporting only one month’s worth of imports, increasing the probability of default. Economic crises in Pakistan happen every few years, and it is caused by an economy that relies on foreign debt as it underproduces and overspends. Each successive financial situation worsened over time as debt increased and instalment payments became due. Internal political instability and flood disasters exacerbated it. There is also a significant external component to the crisis due to rising global food and fuel prices because of the Russia-Ukraine war. Combining all these factors has created Pakistan’s most prominent economic challenge.

Support from the International Monetary Fund and loans from friendly countries like Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states may save Pakistan from becoming a default state for now, but it will not be enough to deal with the apparent underlying recession in the economy, nor can it come to terms with the fact that something must change in terms of the economy’s output and spending to prevent future defaults. No political party in the country has the will and ability to bring such a change. Pakistan has to repay $73 billion by 2025, and we cannot do this without debt restructuring. The last year’s floods were directly linked to climate change and were said to be biblical, as they caused catastrophic flooding in Pakistan. It flooded 1/3 of the country, inundated hundreds of villages, killed more than 7,760 people, destroyed countless homes, infrastructure, and vast tracts of farmland, and displaced millions. Millions of people are still out of their homes, and flood water is still present in some areas. Recovering from such a disaster and rebuilding lost infrastructure, such as roads and schools, is very difficult for a country already suffering from financial crises.

Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the terrorist group that killed thousands of Pakistani people between 2007 and 2014, has been encouraged by Taliban-controlled Afghanistan to pose a serious threat to Pakistan again. The group carried out approximately 150 attacks in Pakistan last year, most of which were in the northwestern region. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has a safe haven in Afghanistan, leaving the Pakistani government increasingly without options to deal effectively with the group. Government negotiations with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan have repeatedly failed because they are against the concept of government and the constitution of Pakistan in its present form. The Taliban in Afghanistan have not been helpful in dealing with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, and the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have worsened sharply over other issues at the same time, including the border that separates the two countries. At this stage, Pakistan’s priority is a dynamic operation against the TTP targets within its borders. The move confronts Pakistan with a rebellious Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan issue, complicating matters beyond the military operation launched against the group in 2014. It is not the biggest challenge that the country faces – but if not controlled on time, it can turn into a major crisis.

In Pakistan, the new Chief of Army Staff was appointed on November 29 2022. General Qamar Javed Bajwa was replaced by General Asim Munir replaced, who held the position of absolute power for six years. The appointment of the new chief became a subject of considerable political controversy last year. The main reason for Imran’s removal from power was his disagreement with the former army chief over issues related to the appointment of senior military officials. Now, attention is focused on how civil-military relations are going to form under General Asim Munir. During General Bajwa’s tenure, the military consolidated its control behind the scenes. Bajwa presided over a close ‘same page’ relationship with Imran. As the situation soured, the PML-N was eager to replace Imran as its military ally and head of the civilian government. During the last days before General Bajwa’s retirement, he said the army would no longer interfere in political affairs. Only a number of people in Pakistan believe in this statement. With politics on the agenda this year and the upcoming elections, General Asim Munir will show the nation whether the statement mentioned above is true or not.