The Russian invasion of Ukraine went terribly wrong and after that, the Russian leadership redeveloped its war plan strategy. After facing a strong resentment from the Ukrainian forces in Kyiv, Russian forces are now shifting their focus toward the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine.
Russia is preparing to make its most dangerous move which is to seize the Ukrainian coastline. The aim is to create a land bridge between the regions of Donbas and Crimea joining Transnistria a state that is internationally recognized as a part of Moldova and cut off Ukraine from the sea and capture the port city of Odesa as a consolation prize. It will be a costly strategy for the Russians. It is still unclear whether the Russians have the reinforcements, equipment and morale to push across Southern Ukraine. The scale and complexity of such an operation have not been witnessed since World War II. High casualties are expected during this operation. If Russia becomes successful in converting Ukraine into a landlocked state, the consequences will be deadly for Ukraine.
After 88 days into the war Russian military commands described the first phase as a great success and claimed that Kyiv was never the real target. Russia’s strategy was to engage the Ukrainian forces in the north and leave the south and east without reinforcements. The key to this first phase campaign was simply a distraction for Ukraine for the Russians.
The rest of the world and Ukrainians do not believe that. According to the Ukrainians, Russia has changed its war strategy because the capture of Kyiv failed but this does not mean the end of the war is near.
Zelensky has asked several times to arrange a meeting with Putin but Putin believes that it is not the right time to meet with Zelensky. Russians still believe they can seize more land before winter hostility begins.
Putin can only redeem his reputation after retrieving from the Kyiv campaign by bringing home a consolation prize. Ukraine’s year-round ice-free ports on the Black Sea will practically do the job. In the second phase of the war, Russia is aiming to landlock Ukraine by taking control of Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and Odesa.
Russian Deputy Mikhail Sheremet said that Crimea and Southern Ukraine should be united in a single Federal district of Russia. Statements like this are a dime a dozen, but the biggest revelation came from Rustam Minnekayev, the deputy commander of Russia’s Central military district who is one of Russia’s top generals. Minnekayev said in his statement that the objectives of the second phase of Russia’s military operation are to gain full control over the Donbas region and all of Southern Ukraine and to create a land bridge between Crimea and the separatist region of Transnistria which belongs to Moldova and has a significant Russian peacekeeping force. Most of Minnekayev’s statements are just repetitions of the current situation.
Russian control over the entire Donbas region has been a pretty obvious observation since the beginning of the war, and creating a land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas region is just a restatement of the existing reality. Russia already controls large parts of Southern Ukraine, from Kherson to Mariupol and the Donbas but Minnekayev’s statement about capturing all of southern Ukraine is quite controversial because it involves a strategy to cut Ukraine completely from the Black Sea and advance as far as Odesa, Mykolaiv and Transnistria.
Russia’s plan to conquer all these areas is open to debate. During a conflict and diplomacy, the territory is often used as a bargaining chip to secure political concessions. Putin can ask Zelenski to reconsider Ukraine’s Foreign Policy in exchange for some of its territories. If that doesn’t work, Russia could hold a popular referendum and create new separatist states on Ukrainian soil in the regions of Transnistria, Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia by following its previously used strategy when it annexed Crimea. At a later date, Russia could arrange a legal process for the separatist regions to join the Russian Federation.
If Russia gets successful in annexing southern Ukraine, Ukraine would become a landlocked country. Only then would Russia be in a position to consider an exit strategy for the war. Capturing year around ice-free ports such as Odesa, Kherson, Mariupol, Berdyansk and Chornomorsk will serve an important PR purpose. It would be something that the Russian leadership can sell to its public as a sign of victory. Normally the warm water ports or year-round ice-free ports have a significant geopolitical and geo-economic value. Most of Ukraine’s vital economic activity takes place in the south by export via the Black Sea. Losing Odesa to Russia would deprive Ukraine of an important export route and possibly change the regional geo-economics.
A year before the war in 2021, Ukraine and Poland signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a transport corridor between the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. The Ukrainian part of Odesa and the Polish port of Gdansk are at the core of the plan while using the railways for the transportation of container cargo between the two regions. The ultimate goal was to create a minimum distance corridor creating a route to facilitate Chinese trade in Western Europe.
China has been looking for a land corridor for a long time now to enter Europe that bypasses countries like India, Iran and Russia. China Pakistan Economic Corridor is one of the examples of this call. Another alternative route that they are working on runs from China to Kazakhstan which crosses the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, then Georgia and Turkey, and then crosses the Black Sea to reach Ukraine. The Poland-Ukraine corridor is expected to help facilitate Chinese trade by speeding up the transit time from Istanbul to Gdansk by no more than four days. This alternative corridor will happen either way, but if Russia takes Odesa permanently, the corridor will likely bypass Ukraine and instead settle for alternative ports, which would severely harm the Ukrainian interest. But for Russia, the warm water ports serve a dual purpose, by controlling the ports Russia would gain the ability to control the nearby Seas and project its power abroad.
Russia’s interest in the Black Sea is bidirectional, both naval and commercial. However, the fact that Russia is on the sanctions nullifies the commercial dimension for now. Biden recently banned Russian ships from entering American ports. Canada is also following the US footprints and has also closed its ports for Russian ships to enter Canadian waters. Bulgaria, Estonia and Italy are also on the same track. More European countries are likely to follow these examples in the coming weeks. Even if Russia takes all the ports of Ukraine, Russia would not be able to gain any benefit from these ports because most the countries will not trade with Russia due to sanctions.
On the naval front, warm water ports are the only outlet beyond Russia’s immediate region where it can influence the world. Since it is clearly a land power, Russia cannot be a global power without a few warm-water ports. Naval hubs and ports are only as valuable as the navy that uses them and the Russian navy is not what it used to be, it lacks firepower technology and manpower, the Russian navy is the weakest combat arm of the Russian army, and most of its ships are outdated. At the moment Russia lacks the resources to expand and modernize its Navy. As of now, Russia would not have the edge of an upper hand in the Black Sea, as Turkey is a serious competitor and the Russian plan to seize the Ukrainian coastline would not add much to Russia’s fortune. Moscow would not have much commercial or marine use for ports due to its International isolation and low economic weight but capturing the Ukrainian coastline would serve a valuable propaganda purpose. The city of Odessa and the like may allow Putin to claim victory despite the loss received so far. The propaganda value of the capture of southern Ukraine would relate to the recent almost complete capture of Mariupol. The city of Mariupol was home to the Azov battalion, a Paramilitary group in the Ukrainian armed forces. Thus, Russia could claim to have defeated the Ukrainian Nazis by taking Mariupol. Defeating the Nazis from Mariupol, capturing the warm water port of Odesa, and forming a land bridge from Russia to Crimea, this narrative would fit the official story that echoes the Kremlin.